Here's the day. Overnight, a US Army Apache attack helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump blamed Iran; he confirmed both pilots are safe. The US then struck Iranian targets — Central Command called them self-defense strikes. Iran fired back, hitting targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. That chain is reported by Reuters, AP, and NPR.
This is YegerPod. I'm Yeger. It's Wednesday, June tenth — Day one hundred and three of the US-Iran war. Today's episode: the strikes the ceasefire was supposed to prevent.
Here's the day. Overnight, a US Army Apache attack helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump blamed Iran; he confirmed both pilots are safe. The US then struck Iranian targets — Central Command called them self-defense strikes. Iran fired back, hitting targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. That chain is reported by Reuters, AP, and NPR.
Casualty figures aren't in yet. Iran disputes Trump's account that it downed the Apache.
Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that Iran has taken — quote — "too long to negotiate a deal," and "now they will have to pay the price." He didn't say what that means. That's via Al Jazeera and the Hindu.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Tehran is reviewing its negotiations with the US after the strikes. He accused Washington and Israel of repeated ceasefire violations, and said diplomacy can't happen in a vacuum. The ministry said the US strikes damaged the international effort to end the war.
So, Day one hundred three: a ceasefire that's held loosely for weeks just took a direct US-Iran exchange. Each side blames the other for breaking it — a familiar standoff, two mirror-image claims.
Lebanon, same window. Israel launched fresh strikes on southern Lebanon — the port city of Sidon, burning cars, per AP's photos on the ground. Hezbollah claimed missile and drone operations against Israeli forces in the south, and said it carried out a series of operations targeting Israeli soldiers and infrastructure. Both sides have put out their tallies; independent confirmation of the specifics is still coming in.
Now the markets — the read you can't get elsewhere. Oil first. Brent climbed about half a percent to roughly ninety-two dollars a barrel after the fresh strikes, WTI near eighty-nine. Keep the scale in mind — crude was above one hundred and twenty just weeks ago, when the Strait first closed back in February. So the strikes nudged prices up, but the bigger story is oil has come well off its highs even with Hormuz still under a dual US-Iran blockade.
Polymarket. The permanent peace deal contract — two hundred and seventy-eight million dollars of volume now. A deal by the end of December sits at sixty-eight percent. By October, fifty-eight. By the end of August, forty-two. So the market still prices an eventual deal as likely — it just keeps pushing the date out.
Two more worth naming. Whether the US invades Iran before twenty twenty-seven — eighteen percent. And whether the Iranian regime falls by the end of June — two percent. The traders are pricing a long, grinding conflict — not a collapse, not an invasion, but no clean exit either.
One diplomatic thread underneath all this. Before last night's strikes, Axios had reported a tentative framework — a sixty-day ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and an Iranian commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. Iran's standing demands have been consistent for weeks: a Lebanon ceasefire with Israeli withdrawal, the unfreezing of about twelve billion dollars in assets, some Iranian role over Hormuz, and later talks on nuclear assurances. That was the state of play yesterday. After last night's strikes, Tehran says that framework is back under review.