The Blockade

This is YegerPod. I'm Yeger. It's Sunday, April twelfth — Day forty-three of the US-Iran war. Today's episode: The Blockade.

There's a lot to cover. We've been off for five days, and in those five days, everything changed. A ceasefire. Peace talks. And then, this morning, a naval blockade.

Let me take you through it.

On April seventh — the day after our last episode, the one about the Kharg Island strikes — Trump posted on Truth Social that he was postponing the strikes. Iran had sent a ten-point peace proposal. Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire. Trump called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and then Netanyahu. The ceasefire was announced that evening.

Iran, the United States, and Israel all agreed to stop shooting.

For about eight hours.

At approximately six-thirty AM GMT on April eighth — roughly eight hours after the ceasefire took effect — explosions struck Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery and Sirri Island crude export facilities. Reuters reported the Iranian Oil Ministry confirmed the Lavan attack. No one claimed responsibility.

And on the same day, Israel launched what it called its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the war began. Wikipedia's tally puts it at three hundred and fifty-seven killed. Reuters reported over two hundred and fifty. The BBC said at least a hundred and eighty-two. Lebanon's health ministry said the total death toll from Israeli strikes since March had passed two thousand.

Netanyahu's office said Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire. Hezbollah had signaled a pause in attacks after the ceasefire announcement. Israel struck over a hundred sites anyway. Tyre. Nabatieh. Sidon. Beirut.

Iran warned it could withdraw from the ceasefire entirely.

Then there's the Strait. The ceasefire was supposed to reopen it. That was the whole point — the core bargain. Iran stops blocking, everyone stops shooting.

By April ninth, Reuters reported ship traffic through Hormuz stood at well below ten percent of normal volumes. The BBC tracked only nineteen ships passing through in three days. Iran's navy radioed passing vessels: quote, "Transit in the Strait of Hormuz is closed yet. You must receive permission from Iranian Sepah Navy."

A billboard appeared in Tehran over the weekend. Iranian soldiers with American ships caught in a net. The message: "The Strait of Hormuz will stay closed."

Hundreds of ships waited on both sides. Brent crude sat at ninety-five dollars a barrel — up forty-seven percent year over year, according to Trading Economics. Trump posted that the US would be quote "helping with the traffic buildup." CNBC reported he wanted the Strait open quote "without limitation, including tolls."

Iran kept charging over a million dollars per ship.

On Friday, April tenth, the delegations arrived in Islamabad. Pakistan had invited both sides. Vice President Vance led the American team. Parliament speaker Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi led Iran's.

The talks started at the Serena Hotel on Saturday. They went on for twenty-one hours.

This morning, Vance stood at a podium in Islamabad alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Quote: "We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We'll see if the Iranians accept it."

He boarded Air Force Two and left.

Iranian state media said quote "excessive demands" sank the deal. Iran's delegation responded that the concept of a "best and final offer" is quote "inherently reciprocal — it cannot be a unilateral mandate or a weapon to be used by one side."

No agreement. Twenty-one hours. Nothing.

And then Trump posted again. This time on Truth Social, this time about ships.

Quote: "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."

He said the Navy would destroy the mines Iran laid in the Strait. He warned that any Iranian who fires at the US or at quote "peaceful vessels will be blown to hell." He added: "No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas."

On Fox News, Trump said NATO wants to help, and that the UK is sending minesweepers. Downing Street hasn't confirmed that. Abu Dhabi's national oil company CEO said the Strait was never Iran's to close.

Trump told Fox it will quote "take a little while" to clean out the Strait, but that it won't "take long."

So here's where we are. Day forty-three. A ceasefire exists on paper. Iran and the US stopped striking each other. But Lebanon got its deadliest day of the war the moment the ceasefire started. Iran's oil facilities were hit by someone nobody will name. The Strait never reopened. Twenty-one hours of talks in Pakistan produced a "final offer" that Iran hasn't accepted.

And now the United States has declared a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The casualty count as of April seventh, according to HRANA: three thousand six hundred and thirty-six dead in Iran. Seventeen hundred and one civilians. Twelve hundred and twenty-one military. Seven hundred and fourteen unclassified. HRANA says actual military casualties are likely much higher. Lebanon: over two thousand dead from Israeli strikes since March.

Brent at ninety-five dollars. Polymarket's ceasefire contract resolved at a hundred percent for April seventh. The new question: "US x Iran permanent peace deal" — one point six million dollars in play. "Will the Iranian regime fall before twenty-twenty-seven?" is live with active trading.

Five days ago we were talking about strikes on Kharg Island and whether Trump's deadline meant anything. Today there's a ceasefire that neither side is fully honoring, peace talks that collapsed after a full day, and the US Navy is preparing to blockade the most important shipping lane on Earth.

The two-week ceasefire expires April twenty-first. Nine days from now.